Inside The Bills

The difference between 6-4 & 5-5

Posted by Chris Brown on November 19, 2017 – 12:24 pm

The Bills currently sit in the sixth and final playoff spot in the AFC with seven games to play. A win over the Chargers today would certainly improve their chances. To see just how much, we looked at the odds for making the playoffs for NFL teams since 1990 and found a sizable difference between starting the season 6-4 as opposed to 5-5.

If the Bills win today and improve to 6-4, their chances of reaching the playoffs is just over 61 percent. If they lose however, their likelihood of reaching the postseason drops to just over 27 percent. It’s a difference of 34 percent.

Playoff Percentages Since 1990
Based on Season Start, Through 10 Games

Start       Made Playoffs
10-0        100.0% (12/12)
9-1         100.0% (28/28)
8-2         96.6% (56/58)
7-3         82.6% (90/109)
6-4         61.3% (84/137)
5-5         27.6% (35/127)
4-6         8.0% (12/150)
3-7         0.0% (0/93)
2-8         0.0% (0/70)
1-9         0.0% (0/28)
0-10      0.0% (0/9)


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