Inside The Bills

Projecting Spiller

Posted by Chris Brown on July 23, 2010 – 1:05 pm

One very dedicated NFL fan has taken the time to look over the contracts of the first round picks taken over the last three years and has subsequently projected what each of the first round draft choices will likely sign for this year in terms of guaranteed money.

On the website pigskinology, which is self described as ‘Where football, economics and mad science meet,’ the projections for guaranteed money along with an explanation as to how the numbers were reached is listed. Seeing that Dez Bryant was projected to get $8.174M guaranteed and according to reports got $8.3M, I’d say they’re pretty close to being on the money with these projections, no pun intended.

For what it’s worth C.J. Spiller is forecast to land close to $21 million in guaranteed money ($20,712,039.94). Gotta love how they’ve got it down to the cents.


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Posted in Inside the Bills

Bills rookies meet Goodell

Posted by Chris Brown on June 28, 2010 – 6:21 am

Buffalo’s nine-draft choices met with NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell over the weekend at the league’s annual rookie symposium.

Goodell addressed the more than 250 new NFL players for about an hour focusing on “protecting the (NFL) shield” and player safety.

He spoke to the players about honoring the game and personal conduct among other topics and also opened the floor up for questions.


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Posted in Inside the Bills

Parameters for Carrington?

Posted by Chris Brown on June 18, 2010 – 12:50 pm

NFL draft choices often get slotted into contracts based on where they were drafted. With the players near where Bills third-round pick Alex Carrington was drafted beginning to sign, there’s hope the defensive end might not be that far away from being the next in line.

Carrington was the 72nd overall pick this past spring. To this point a few players taken shortly after him have signed with their respective NFL teams. Chicago S Major Wright, who went three picks after Carrington signed on May 28th. Giants safety Chad Jones taken right after Wright signed June 11th and pick 80, Denver OL J.D. Walton signed earlier this week.

The signings are a bit spread out so it will likely still take some time, especially since no one drafted ahead of Carrington in round three has signed to this point, nor have the two draft choices taken right after Carrington. Only then will the numbers be more concrete for both sides.


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Posted in Inside the Bills

M&T Bank draft day contest winners

Posted by Chris Brown on June 3, 2010 – 10:34 am

The winners of the fourth annual M&T Bank Draft Day Challenge were announced by the Bills on Thursday.

There were five winners this year were selected at random from the over 350 entries that correctly had C.J. Spiller as the team’s top choice. The winners are… 

Rob Balsamo, Webster, NY
Marisa Bartz, Buffalo
Eric Cornavaca, Buffalo
Doug McAvoy, Penfield, NY
Kathleen McGowan, Fairport, NY

Each of the five winners correctly selected former Clemson University running back C.J. Spiller as the Bills first pick of the NFL Draft.

Nearly 7,000 fans participated in the buffalobills.com online contest and 372 fans correctly predicted Spiller as Buffalo’s top selection in this year’s draft.
 
As part of the prize, the winners will meet C.J. Spiller after the Bills Open Practice on Saturday, June 5th.  In addition to the meet and greet, they will each receive a special tour of the training facility and a C.J. Spiller autographed jersey.


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Posted in Inside the Bills

Jones was the mystery WR

Posted by Chris Brown on May 19, 2010 – 8:14 am

Bills college free agent WR Donald Jones was indirectly part of Buffalo’s draft last month.

When the Bills drafted WR Marcus Easley in the fourth round, team scout Tom Roth explained how they felt in addition to all of Easley’s receiving skills they thought he was one of the best blocking receivers in the draft. Here’s exactly what Roth said on day two of the draft after Easley was selected.

“He’s a real good blocker so he’s got that mentality,” said Roth of Easley. “DeMaryius Thomas who I scouted at Georgia Tech is an excellent blocker, Marcus is and there’s one other guy that hasn’t been picked yet.”

That “one other guy” was Donald Jones according to Roth.

“He’s similar to Easley,” said Roth. “He’s not as fast on film. He ran a 4.49 at the combine, but he’s very strong. He has strong hands, strong blocker. I couldn’t believe he didn’t get drafted.”

The fact that he didn’t could prove to be a very big benefit to Buffalo’s receiving corps.


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Draft pick signings

Posted by Chris Brown on May 16, 2010 – 7:46 pm

The Chicago Bears are up to their typical early efforts to get their draft choices signed.

Chicago is usually one of the first NFL clubs to begin signing draft picks and have reportedly signed 7th round pick J’Marcus Webb. That according to the Chicago Tribune.

He’s only the second player from the 2010 draft to sign in the league thus far. The Bears usually get their players to sign early by adding a fourth-year on their contracts. Late round picks typically sign three-year deals.


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Posted in Inside the Bills

Draft day tales

Posted by Chris Brown on May 3, 2010 – 9:38 am

Buffalo drafted a pair of linebackers in the sixth round on day 3 of the 2010 NFL draft. Both Arthur Moats and Danny Batten shared some of their draft day experiences in journal entries.

Appearing on NFL.com both Moats and Batten shared some interesting developments. Come round six a few teams were hot on the trail of Moats in addition to the Bills.

For Batten he’s just glad he’s got an NFL destination.


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Spiller makes list of projected successes

Posted by Chris Brown on April 30, 2010 – 8:37 am

In the wake of the draft there are grades, reviews and assessments of each NFL team’s draft class. There are also projections as to which team landed instant impact type players. Scout.com did such a projection and Buffalo’s top pick is at the head of the list.

Here is Scout.com’s ‘most-likely-to-succeed’ list of 2010 draft choices.

Bills RB C.J. Spiller: Smart, proud, fast and versatile, the former Clemson star will hit the ground running and will leave plenty of defenders frustrated and weary.
Lions DT Ndamukong Suh: He may not make as much noise as people anticipate during his rookie year, but the determined warrior will be a dominant player once he adds pro technique to his strength and instincts.
Falcons LB Sean Weatherspoon: A natural leader who has an unbridled enthusiasm for the game, Weatherspoon has the range and skill set to become a respected talent in this league.
Dolphins DE Jared Odrick: The former Penn State DT has pro-level technique as a pass rusher, along with a professional demeanor that will serve him well.  
Steelers OL Maurkice Pouncey: His positive attitude off the field, nasty streak on it, and his consistent results as a run blocker and in pass protection will take him far.
Eagles DE Brandon Graham: A man among boys in the college ranks, Graham’s got the strength and speed to roll up the sacks in the NFL.
Patriots CB Devin McCourty: A scrappy defender who should have the opportunity to shine in New England.
Rams QB Sam Bradford: As long as he stays healthy, I like Bradford’s chances of bringing the Rams offense back to a level of respectability.

I find it interesting that Scout.com put Spiller at the head of the list. They did list these players in the order in which they were drafted and they didn’t go in alphabetical order. Even though they didn’t number them seeing Spiller listed first leads me to believe they believe Spiller has the greatest chance for immediate success.


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Posted in Inside the Bills

Nix on why Tebow wasn’t in their plans

Posted by Chris Brown on April 29, 2010 – 11:13 am

Bills GM Buddy Nix told Buffalobills.com on draft weekend that Tim Tebow was never in their plans. On Thursday during an interview with Double-X 1090 radio in San Diego he explained why.

When asked if the Bills had ever considered Tebow as a possible draft choice early he stated that they did not, citing what he felt was likely to be a developmental process to make Tebow NFL ready.

“I went to every quarterback workout and I went to see every quarterback and that kind of thing,” said Nix. “I love Tim Tebow and he’s going to be successful, but we didn’t have time to wait on a guy. We have too many needs. We can’t take a guy and have him sit him two or three years or whatever it takes. I don’t know how long it’ll take. He might come in and play right off, but we didn’t know that. So it was kind of a thing where we had to get somebody in that (draft) spot that was going to contribute early.”

Whether it was round one or round two, Buffalo did get a pair of players that figure to be early contributors in C.J. Spiller and Torell Troup. Both are expected to be on the field a good deal as rookies in 2010.


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Posted in Inside the Bills

Why Spiller better than Best

Posted by Chris Brown on April 29, 2010 – 11:12 am

There was naturally strong support out west for Cal RB Jahvid Best as being one of the best backs in the draft. Some apparently even thought he was on a par with Buffalo’s C.J. Spiller. People in the know however, disagree and explain why.

Former NFL scout Dan Jeremiah, who runs his draft site (MoveTheSticks.com), was asked on his twitter account if he thought Best was a better back than Spiller. Then another tweeter followed up when Jeremiah said Spiller was better, forcing him to explain why.

MoveTheSticks: Reply Retweet    RT @_Ut_: j. best or cj spiller, stronger after initial contact?> Spiller is stronger

MoveTheSticks: RT @injuryexpert: How so? Equal in bench, equal in broad jump. Plus Best had more carries.> I go off the game tape, Spiller has more power.

Jeremiah’s last point is an important one, and it speaks to what Bills GM Buddy Nix was referencing on draft weekend after Spiller was selected. Nix stated that Spiller has the ability to run between the tackles and that part of his game should not be underestimated just because he’s 198 pounds. With 606 carries in his time at Clemson he was extremely durable and has a body lean and power to him that gets through would be tacklers inside. Best is primarily an edge player. Talented yes, but not quite as talented as Spiller.

What’s interesting is that Spiller and Best will face each other twice during the 2010 campaign. Once in the preseason (Sept. 2) and once in the regular season (Nov. 14). 


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Posted in Inside the Bills

WR Easley to appear on ESPN

Posted by Chris Brown on April 28, 2010 – 2:06 pm

Bills 4th-round pick Marcus Easley will be appearing on ESPN on Thursday (April 29th).

The wide receiver will be interviewed on ESPN’s First Take show at 11:30 am, which airs on ESPN2.

Easley’s appearance is likely due in part to the fact that the UCONN campus is just a short drive from ESPN’s Bristol, Connecticut studios. Nevertheless it’s an opportunity for fans to get a feel for one of Buffalo’s newest wideouts.


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Looks like 3 day draft here to stay

Posted by Chris Brown on April 27, 2010 – 1:09 pm

The NFL released the ratings results for the 2010 NFL draft and with the increase in viewership, the three-day format in all likelihood is going nowhere.

A record combined total viewership of 45.4 million viewers tuned in to watch the 75th NFL Draft on NFL Network, ESPN and ESPN2 – up 16% from last year’s record of 39 million, according to Nielsen Media Research. 

There were also a record 12.5 million visits to NFL.com during the Draft — up 61% from last year.

The first round being broadcast in prime time Thursday night along with half of Friday night’s coverage also in primetime it’s not surprising to see the number appreciably higher. That was the goal from the start so with this kind of success the three day format looks like it’s here to stay.


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Bills draft grades in total

Posted by Chris Brown on April 27, 2010 – 8:47 am

Here is a rundown of the draft grades given to the Bills just a day or two after the 2010 NFL draft. These grades should be taken with a grain of salt as draft grades on a class should really be handed out three years later. Special thanks to Bills media relations.

Grade: A
Analyst: Corey Chavous
Outlet: NFL Network
Link: http://www.nfl.com/videos/buffalo-bills/09000d5d817c5aed/Bills-draft-grade

Grade: B+
Analyst: Nolan Nawrocki
Outlet: Pro Football Weekly
Link: http://www.profootballweekly.com/2010/04/25/ravens-patriots-stand-out-on-draft-weekend
Comments:  In Buddy Nix’s first year as general manager, the Bills could be criticized from outsiders for reaching. But C.J. Spiller was not expected to last another pick and NT Torrell Troup had increased value with a run on strong pluggers in the second round. Both can be expected to make immediate impacts at critical positions on each side of the ball, not to mention the impact Spiller could have on special teams. Like Troup, Alex Carrington also could provide a key piece to the Bills’ new “30” front. In the last three rounds, the Bills added solid depth with the selection five developmental-type prospects. Marcus Easley has upside. Ed Wang is a functional backup. Arthur Moats and Danny Batten are developmental, small-school hybrid rushers. Levi Brown may turn out to be a steal in the seventh. And Kyle Calloway could turn out to be a solid pickup. All nine picks stand a chance to make the roster, and the first three picks should start readily. Landing a difference maker and Pro Bowl-caliber talent like Spiller was a plus.

Grade: B
Analyst: Rick Gosselin
Outlet: Dallas Morning News
Link: http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/columnists/rgosselin/stories/042510dnspogoosegrades.3f4b050.html
Comments: The Bills claimed the draft’s most dynamic offensive weapon in Spiller, then went to work retooling the defensive front. Troup (314 pounds) and Carrington (285) give the Bills size, and sixth-rounders Moats and Batten give them speed.

Grade: B –
Analyst: Chris Burke
Outlet: AOL Fanhouse
Link: http://nfl.fanhouse.com/2010/04/25/2010-nfl-draft-grades-final-verdict/
Comments:  The C.J. Spiller pick at No. 9 was a head-scratcher and Torrell Troup at 41 wasn’t exactly gold, but Buffalo’s work improved markedly after that. OTs Ed Wang (No. 140) and Kyle Calloway (No. 216) were value picks that add needed depth, while the Levi Brown selection at No. 209 will hopefully give Buffalo some hope at quarterback.
 
Grade: B –
Analyst: Steve Serby
Outlet: NY Post
Link: http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/giants/seby_grades_the_draft_HRTq1TOjtSvDzVO8PYzLsM#ixzz0mCzDxuz4
Comments: Imagine if RB-KR C.J. Spiller was handed the ball behind an offensive line that could open holes for him. “Great backs can get through smaller creases and great backs can get on the edge faster,” Chan Gailey said. . . . NT Torell Troup and DE Alex Carrington needed in new 3-4 against upcoming Shonn Greene assault. But who plays quarterback?

Grade: B –
Analyst: Randy Covitz
Outlet: Kansas City Star
Link: http://www.kansascity.com/2010/04/24/1900493/randy-covitzs-team-by-team-nfl.html#ixzz0mIviSXR6
Comments: Spiller has the capablilty of being the NFL’s Rookie of the Year if he can get some blocking. Instead of filling offensive line needs at the top of the draft, the Bills addressed their new 3-4 front with the selections of Troup, Carrington, who played at the non-BCS level, and Moats. Wang will get a chance to play right away.

Grade: 12th of all 32 teams
Outlet: ESPN.com
Analyst: Todd McShay
Link: http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft10/insider/news/story?id=5133008&&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnfl%2fdraft10%2finsider%2fnews%2fstory%3fid%3d5133008
Comments: We’re fans of the C.J. Spiller pick (No. 9). In our opinion there were better players available when they selected DT Torell Troup (No. 41) and DE Alex Carrington (No. 72), but they still addressed key spots in their new 3-4 scheme. The Bills also got one of the potential steals of the entire draft in sixth-round OLB Arthur Moats.

Grade: C+
Analyst: Charles Davis
Outlet: NFL Network
Link: http://www.nfl.com/videos/buffalo-bills/09000d5d817c5aed/Bills-draft-grade
 
Grade: C+
Analyst: Mel Kiper
Outlet: ESPN
Link: http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft10/insider/news/story?id=5118576
Comments:  The Buffalo Bills received a C-plus. Kiper is a big fan of ninth overall pick C.J. Spiller but was down on Central Florida nose tackle Torell Troup early in the second round and Arkansas State defensive end Alex Carrington in the third.  “Outside of Spiller,” Kiper writes, “it’s hard to see where Buffalo got much better.”

Grade: C+
Analyst: Rob Rang
Outlet: CBS Sportsline
Link: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/story/13292580
Comments: The Bills might be lacking at the other offensive skill positions, but with the addition of running back C.J. Spiller, they boast one of the more talented and explosive backfields in all of the NFL. Spiller’s great speed and elusiveness make him a big-play threat, but there were other, bigger needs for this club. With their need for a playmaker filled, the Bills focused on adjusting their defensive line personnel. The Bills are moving to a 3-4 scheme and added two prototype players for the scheme in nose guard Torrell Troup and defensive end Alex Carrington. Both could become starters this season. The Bills might be too optimistic in thinking they can get immediate help from fifth- and seventh-round picks Ed Wang and Kyle Calloway at offensive tackle.

Grade: C
Analyst: Pete Prisco
Outlet: CBS Sportsline
Link: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/story/13292105/draft-grades-bucs-give-contenders-some-competition-for-honor-roll/rss
Comments: Getting Spiller was a nice move, but at some point they need to find their quarterback of the future. Why not Jimmy Clausen in the second round? Hoping Brown is it is a long shot.

Grade: C
Analyst: Mark Maske
Outlet: The Washington Post
Link: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/24/AR2010042402342.html
Comments: The Bills say they weren’t going to draft a QB just to draft a QB. But you have to try to get a franchise QB if you don’t have one, and the Bills passed on repeated opportunities to get Jimmy Clausen or Colt McCoy.
 
Grade: C
Analyst: John Czarnecki
Outlet: FOX Sports
Link: http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/NFL-Draft-grades-every-team-bradford-tebow-042410
Comments: The Bills passed on their quarterback needs (maybe Trent Edwards is better than we think?), but they took the draft’s best running back, Clemson’s C.J. Spiller, who is a home-run hitter. To shore up their porous run defense, they grabbed 318-pound nose tackle Torrell Troup of Central Florida about 20 spots too high. Troup was a three-year starter and a team captain and ran a spectacular 5.1 40-yard dash. Arkansas State DE Alex Carrington should fit ideally into the 3-4 scheme. Surprisingly, the trade rumors were false on Marshawn Lynch, meaning that he and Spiller could be in the same backfield, which should pose problems for opposing defenses. Troy QB Levi Brown was an interesting pick late, but Coach Chan Gailey apparently likes ex-Packer Brian Brohm, too.

Grade: C
Analyst: Wes Bunting
Outlet: National Football Post
Link: http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/2010-NFP-draft-grades.html
Comments: I love Alex Carrington in the third, Marcus Easley in the fourth and Danny Batten in the sixth, but who’s going to play quarterback and left tackle for this team? QB Levi Brown lacks the arm to spin the football through the winds of Buffalo, and OT Ed Wang is nowhere near NFL-ready.

Grade: C –
Analyst: Jarrett Bell
Outlet: USA Today
Link: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/2010-04-25-nfl-draft-grades_N.htm
Comments: The draft’s most explosive player, running back C.J. Spiller, now jockeys for touches with Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson. His big-play ability was undoubtedly too good to pass up. But Buffalo, with a 3-4 scheme, reached for nose tackle Torell Troup rather than addressing its quarterback need. And the Bills didn’t tap a tackle until the fifth round.

Grade: C –
Analyst: Clifton Brown
Outlet: Sporting News
Link: http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/article/2010-04-24/who-makes-grade-we-rate-2010-nfl-draft
Comments: This draft will not help them gain ground in the tough AFC East. C.J. Spiller is an explosive running back, but they still have quarterback and offensive line issues. They have a trio of unproven QBs — Brian Brohm, Trent Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick — yet passed on Jimmy Clausen in the second round and Colt McCoy in the third before drafting Levi Brown in Round 7. That’s tough to understand.
 
Analysts: Bob Glauber
Outlet: Newsday
Link: http://www.newsday.com/sports/football/giants/bob-glauber-s-nfl-draft-report-card-1.1879890
Comments: No quibbling about Spiller in the first round. Terrific player. But with a glaring need at quarterback, the Bills bypassed Colt McCoy and Jimmy Clausen . Not only that, but they essentially ignored the other glaring weakness, the offensive line, until the fifth round, settling for Ed Wang of Virginia Tech .


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Posted in Inside the Bills

Bills bag draft day steals

Posted by Chris Brown on April 26, 2010 – 8:23 am

FOXSports.com assessed some of the better draft day steals this past weekend and the Bills had three of them.

The three Bills picks considered steals were 4th round pick Marcus Easley, 6th round pick Arthur Moats and 7th round pick Levi Brown.


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Posted in Inside the Bills

Report: Bills undrafted signings

Posted by Chris Brown on April 24, 2010 – 7:38 pm

This is anything but official, but there are reports out there already on some of the undrafted rookies that have signed with Buffalo.

Every year NEPatriotsdraft.com puts out a list of undrafted free agent signings for every team in the league that is pretty much on the mark. Though the Bills usually do not confirm any undrafted signings for a few days, here are the player names that have reportedly signed with Buffalo.

John Destin, CB, Tulsa
Naaman Roosevelt, WR, Buffalo
Donald Jones, WR, Youngstown St.
Joique Bell, RB, Wayne State
Stephan Virgil, CB, Virginia Tech
Brett Johnson, S, Cal
Antonio Coleman, DE/OLB, Auburn

Seeing cornerbacks on this list is not surprising since GM Buddy Nix mentioned that they had landed some cornerbacks among their undrafted signings.

“You always try to take a corner,” said Nix of the draft. “Now we got some just after the draft. You always need to get them. You use them so much, they’re on the field so much. What helped us to pick the guys we did (in the draft) is that we feel pretty good about our secondary and the depth and all of it. We’ll pick up a couple of good players. Most of the guys we’re getting after the draft we had draftable grades on.”

Roosevelt has reportedly also announced he is signing with Buffalo on his Facebook page. So a local Buffalo kid looks like he’ll be staying local. When all of the undrafted signings are official we’ll have them for you on the home page of Buffalobills.com.


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Nix on why draft fell right for them

Posted by Chris Brown on April 24, 2010 – 7:29 pm

Bills GM Buddy Nix was pretty pleased with how the board fell for the Bills over the three days of the draft. And there was a big reason why he was pleased.

It’s because based on Buffalo’s board just about every player they took had a higher draft grade than where the Bills took them off the board.

“In general everybody we drafted we had graded higher than we drafted them, I guess other than Spiller, but everybody else we didn’t have to go down and take a guy,” said Nix. “You’re fortunate when that happens. It’s not saying that we did a great job of grading them, we’ll wait and see how it turns out. But if you can take a guy that’s graded higher than where you’re taking him then you’re doing pretty good.”


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QB Brown to compete

Posted by Chris Brown on April 24, 2010 – 6:58 pm

Bills seventh-round pick QB Levi Brown is considered a developmental prospect by Buffalo, but it doesn’t mean he isn’t going to get the chance to compete with the other three quarterbacks on the roster for the starting job come training camp.

That according to Bills head coach Chan Gailey.

“Everybody that walks on that football field has a chance,” said Gailey. “I don’t care if it’s one of these guys we’re trying to sign as a free agent, they’ve got a chance and if you don’t go by that philosophy then to me you’re short changing these guys that you’re signing and drafting. You have to give them an opportunity to win a job.”

Gailey said Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Brohm and Brown are the four quarterbacks that they’ll in all likelihood go into the season with in 2010.

“I would anticipate that yes,” said Gailey. “More than likely I would think that.”


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Position moves for Moats and Batten

Posted by Chris Brown on April 24, 2010 – 5:47 pm

Buffalo’s two linebackers taken in the sixth round played a good portion of their career with their hands on the ground as pass rushers up on the line. Both Arthur Moats and Danny Batten project to linebacker and head coach Chan Gailey outlined specifically where they’ll be lining up.

“We’ll play Moats inside and Batten outside,” said Gailey. “They’re both guys that you’ve got to kind of look at their size, speed, toughness and intelligence and say they can make that move. We feel like they both have that kind of quality to be able to do that. Even though Batten played inside in the Texas vs. Nation game we feel he’s better suited as an outside guy. He’s taller and has the range to be at that spot better than Arthur does.”


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Mayock likes QB Brown

Posted by Chris Brown on April 24, 2010 – 5:33 pm

NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock had some pretty interesting comments on Bills seventh round pick QB Levi Brown.

“Buffalo finally got a QB in Levi Brown from Troy,” wrote Mayock on his NFL draft chat after losing his voice. “I believe he’s been undervalued all along. He was invited to the Combine, but only as a throwing QB, not a participant. I liked him on tape, and feel like he has a chance to be a very solid backup QB.”

Mayock feels Brown can come in as a backup as a rookie with the potential to be more than that down the line. ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay had Brown as his sixth best QB prospect, but 10 QBs were drafted ahead of him.


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Corey Chavous loves Bills draft

Posted by Chris Brown on April 24, 2010 – 5:24 pm

Former NFL safety Corey Chavous, who is an NFL draft analyst for the NFL Network is flat out impressed with Buffalo’s 2010 draft class.

Chavous gave the Bills an ‘A’ for an immediate reaction grade. Check out his analysis.


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