Inside The Bills

Kiper likes LB Simon for Bills

ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper has mocked out his draft to the third round. And his viable third round option for the Bills is DE/OLB John Simon from Ohio State.

Simon has a work ethic that parallels another former Ohio State LB in Chris Spielman. A two-time captain for the Buckeyes, Simon was the heart and soul of team. He had a minor bursa sac injury at the end of last season, but tested well running a 4.66 40-time at 6’2″ 257 pounds.

“You look at John Simon I like the way he plays the game,” said Kiper. “He’s got a lot of versatility. He plays with energy. You look at John Simon, you think early to mid third round. I project him to Buffalo, 71st pick overall. Energy, kind of like the old Mike Vrabel who came out of Ohio State, had a nice career in NFL. Plays down end, gives you some scheme versatility. Great kid. Tremendously hard worker, great passion for the game. I think John Simon solidly in the third round now.”

The only drawback to Simon’s game is his coverage ability.

Round 2 could present high drama for QBs

A handful of NFL clubs are in the market for a long term solution at quarterback. Bills GM Buddy Nix has said as much since last fall concerning Buffalo’s situation at the position. But with a quarterback class that most so called experts believe doesn’t offer much in the way of top 10 talent, many of the teams looking to add a signal caller will wait until round two. Kiper sees that as a potentially risky scenario for those clubs.

“You have to be careful, or you can get lucky,” said Kiper. ”Cincinnati waited for Andy Dalton. Everybody thought Cincinnati was going to trade up to get Andy Dalton or would have to trade up to get Andy Dalton. It didn’t work that way. San Diego, Drew Brees fell to them after they made the deal for Michael Vick to go to Atlanta that year and it allowed them to get LaDainian Tomlinson and then they got Drew Brees.”

Nix was a part of San Diego’s scouting staff at the time, and he was rewarded again for being patient in last year’s draft when Buffalo saw OT Cordy Glenn fall to them at 41.

“It has worked being patient and getting some good luck and some good fortune,” said Kiper. ”But to get Nassib where (the Bills) are picking in the second round, that’s something you would have to say is debatable. That’s at 41 and he could very easily go before that.”

In round two the pick order goes as follows.

33 Jacksonville
34 San Francisco from Kansas City
35 Philadelphia
36 Detroit
37 Cincinnati from Oakland
38 Arizona
39 New York Jets
40 Tennessee
41 Buffalo

Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Arizona and the Jets are all clubs that could consider quarterback and all four pick in front of the Bills in the second round. Kiper, who assumes the Bills would covet Nassib, believes if the Bills truly want him they may need to move up the board.

“The strength of their conviction on the quarterback will determine a lot of that,” said Kiper of the Bills. ”If they feel they have to get Ryan Nassib, then they’ll move out and move up.”

That could prove difficult with just six picks in Buffalo’s arsenal in this draft unless they elect to use future picks.

“That’s determined by their feelings,” said Kiper. “Are they hoping to just be lucky and have good fortune? Or are they going to be aggressive and move up to go get him? That’s one of the interesting scenarios in this draft.”

Latest Kiper mock goes OLB for Bills

It’s been stated more than once that if Buffalo can’t land a quarterback they like that’s fitting of the value of eighth overall and they can’t find a willing trade partner to move down that they’ll take the best defensive player on the board. ESPN NFL draft analyst Mel Kiper has just that scenario playing out for Buffalo in his latest mock draft.

Kiper has Georgia OLB Jarvis Jones going to the Bills at eighth overall in round one. Here was his analysis on the picks, which also indicated the Bills anticipated measure of activity in the free agent market.

Kiper’s new mock has LB to Bills

ESPN NFL draft analyst Mel Kiper has just released his second mock draft. He makes special mention that he believes trades could happen for teams like Kansas City (1st) and Arizona (7th) where they move out of the top 10 since there are no quarterbacks that fit the value there. That’s why he also doesn’t select a QB for the Bills at 8.

Kiper chose Georgia LB Alec Ogletree for Buffalo at eighth overall. Ogletree had 112 tackles, 3 sacks and an interception in 2012. Here was his analysis.

Mayock: 3-4 QBs will go round 1

Just days after ESPN NFL draft analyst Mel Kiper chose not to put a single quarterback in his initial first-round mock draft, NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock had a much different opinion.

Mayock during NFL Network’s Senior Bowl coverage said he expects as many as four signal callers to come off the board in round one come last April.

“It’s early in this entire process,” Mayock said. “Everyone says there’s no Andrew Luck, there’s no Robert Griffin III. … I guarantee you by the time we get to April, there will be three to four quarterbacks taken in the first round, and most of them are coming out of this game.”

Mayock made reference to four of the QBs participating at the Senior Bowl this week, including N.C. State’s Mike Glennon and Syracuse’s Ryan Nassib.

Kiper’s grade for Bills

ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper has put out his draft grades. Here’s what he had for the Bills.

Kiper gave Buffalo a B- overall grade and a B grade for value. This is what he wrote.

Summary: I had the Bills selecting Stephon Gilmore in my final mock draft, and they ended up taking him. I didn’t see CB as the top need, but it’s a solid pick. Gilmore is ready to start immediately for a secondary that allowed 7.3 yards per pass attempt in 2011. The Bills pass defense should be better in 2012 when you put together an improved pass rush and the draft help in the secondary. Ron Brooks, a burner out of LSU, could stick as a slot cornerback. He lacks size, but can fly. I don’t share the opinion that Cordy Glenn can be a left tackle, but he was a total steal at No. 41. He was on my final Big Board at No. 14. If the Bills move him inside (or to right tackle), he’ll succeed. Zebrie Sanders was a steal in the sixth round. They got a wideout with T.J. Graham, as well as a pair of linebackers to bring in and battle for a spot. Pretty good weekend for Buddy Nix and the Bills.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2012/story/_/id/7823750/mel-kiper-gives-grades-every-nfl-team-draft

Kiper: A lot of mixed opinions

While there seems to be a general consensus that there’s a top six grouping of elite prospects in this year’s draft class, ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper says there’s much debate about whether all six belong in the top tier.

“I think there’s a group up at the top that’s very much mixed opinion on,” Kiper said. “I think a lot of the talk about it always goes down so far.  Well, I can go down to seven and tell you people are kind of critical of some of those players and don’t think they deserve to be up there. The only consensus is really the two quarterbacks, Luck and Griffin. 

“So this perception going in or this feeling going in that everybody agrees with the tiering, they don’t.  You’ll talk to five teams, you’ll get five different tiers and you’ll get guys in the top seven of one team that the other team doesn’t even think three of those guys even belong in the top 15.  So there’s no consensus to seven, eight, nine, ten.  I can just tell you that.          

“There’s some people that have some concerns about Matt Kalil being in the top group.  There’s people that have concerns about Blackmon being up there.  Melvin Ingram, where do you play him?  Some don’t think he’s a defensive end, some think he’s an outside linebacker, mixed opinion there.  You talk about Michael Floyd, mixed opinion there, should he be up in the top ten?  Quinton Coples, should he be up there in the top 10 to 15?  Dontari Poe, defensive nose tackle, defensive tackle, should he be up there?          

“So it’s really a case where, like I say, I think the ones that I haven’t heard a lot, you could say Trent Richardson, but he’s a running back.  Is it enough?  I’ve said this for 30 years, is it enough value, should you take a running back in the top five when you can get great running backs down the road?”

All of the mixed opinion just serves as another reminder as to how varied draft boards can be from team to team, which is what makes the NFL draft so unpredictable in the first place. Of course that’s also the appeal. 

At the end of the day, opinions are still going to be all over the place, and I think tiering it is a dangerous way to go. 

Kiper, Mayock: Tannehill needs time

Despite all the hype about Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill’s so called rocketing draft stock, some of the more notable draft analysts aren’t sold on him coming and helping a team right away. Tannehill is making a pre-draft visit with the Bills today (Tuesday).

“I can see all the attributes of a (Jake) Locker in Tannehill,” said NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock. ”He’s a big, strong kid that can push the ball down the field. He’s athletic. I like everything about him except for the fact that on tape, I think he stares his receivers down and waits for them to come up before he rips it. That’s typical of a young quarterback without a lot of starts. I look at him and say kind of like Jake Locker. He’s going to take a little it of time. It’s going to take a year or so.”

“I think there are some questions about Tannehill in terms of how quickly he’ll be able to play,” said ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper. ”I thought last year that Blaine Gabbert wasn’t going to be ready to play in an NFL offense, but that was based on the offense he ran at Missouri. With Tannehill its lack of experience. Against Oklahoma 50% comp pct., Kansas St. 58.7%, Texas 40.8% with 3 picks, 3 picks against Oklahoma, 3 picks against Oklahoma State 59.6%. So against those better teams he struggled. Versus ranked teams only 59.8% with 9 picks. He is spectacular in the red zone. 63.5% 18 TDs and one INT. You like the potential and talent. So he’ll go high.” 

If Tannehill is going to come off the board as high as the mock drafters have him forecast, the likelihood of him sitting a year are pretty remote. A quarterback draft in the top 15 picks is largely expected to come in and start right away.

Kiper on Luck and RG III

On a nearly two-hour conference call ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper answered just about everything under the sun with respect to the 2012 NFL draft class. Naturally the subject of Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III came up. Kiper was asked if there’s any way that RG III overtakes Luck for the top spot in the draft. I think everyone knows the answer.

“Andrew Luck is the best quarterback grade I’ve given in 35 years of doing this,” Kiper said. ”Andrew Luck is viewed as a more athletic Peyton Manning. You cannot pass on Andrew Luck. I haven’t given a grade as high as Luck since 1983 and that was John Elway.”

As for Griffin it seems the only questions on him involve his true measured height per Kiper.

“I thought he was a quarterback all along,” Kiper said. ”I think the fact that he can throw that deep ball so accurately, he’s a straight line guy in terms of mobility. He was a hurdler. He’s not Michael Vick. He doesn’t change direction and isn’t as explosive in and out of his cuts as Vick. Vick is the best running quarterback I’ve ever seen, but RG III is a much better passer. That’s why he has such a high grade.

“His mobility is excellent. He can make people miss. He’s not as dynamic a runner as Vick. Certainly his intelligence, character and game management is all excellent. His height isn’t ideal, he’s listed as 6’2”. If he’s not then there won’t be that buzz. It is what it is.”

Kiper’s Bills assessment

ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper did what he labeled a summer audit of the AFC East clubs and he had some interesting comments on the Bills.

He had some praise for the draft class they put together, but felt there are a couple of areas still to be addressed. Kiper pointed to the offensive line and the pass rush.

Kiper: Williams a 1st rounder

ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper, called Bills second-round pick Aaron Williams one of the steals of the 2011 draft class.

“Aaron Williams I really like at that point where they got him,” said Kiper in a national conference call this week. ”He can play corner, he can play safety, he’s the toughest run support corner that I’ve graded in the last five years.

“He wound up going 34. I thought he’d be a late one. I thought teams like Philadelphia would look at him and some of those teams late (in the first). To get him where they did that’s a nice pick there.”

Here is his full list of draft steals.

Kiper: Hairston key to class

ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper, who gave the Bills an overall grade of ‘B’ in this year’s draft, called fourth-round pick OT Chris Hairston the most critical piece of Buffalo’s draft class.

“With the offensive line you can only do so much,” said Kiper. ”With the offensive line there was a big drop off after the top group. That’s why I think the key guy is going to be Chris Hairston. Chris Hairston has a lot of ability and potential. I think he’s not yet where he needs to be. Any time you get a kid that’s 6’6 ¼” and 326 pounds and is very, very strong in the upper body, he’s got incredibly long arms. The kid is a talent.

“(The question is) outside pass rushers, how much trouble will they give him? He’s got to get quicker out of his stance and do a better job of maintaining his frame between the defense and the quarterback, but that will come with coaching. Offensive line coaching will be critical for Hairston because he needs some coaching and the offensive line coach has to develop this kid. If they do it could be a very good pick there.”

With Bills offensive line coach Joe D’Alessandris, Hairston will be in good hands. Head coach Chan Gailey said over the weekend he envisions Hairston as a right tackle, even though he played left at Clemson. And Kiper apparently doesn’t put a whole lot of stock in Erik Pears, who is the Bills odds on favorite to be the starting right tackle in 2011, after a couple of strong starts last season as a late year pickup.

Kiper’s newest mock

ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper’s latest mock draft (installment #3) has Cam Newton coming off the board after the Bills pick at 3.

Kiper has Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert going first overall to Carolina, followed by Nick Fairley to Denver with the Bills taking Marcell Dareus third. He then has Newton going to Cincinnati fourth. Here’s his take on why he sees Dareus going to Buffalo.

Many were surprised at Dareus’ measurements at the combine, where he weighed in at 319 pounds. And while Chan Gailey says his 2011 defense could resemble a hybrid — either a 3-4 or a 4-3 depending on available personnel and matchups — Dareus is a player who can fit any scheme well. With great quickness for his size, he can take up blockers and still provide a push as a 3-4 defensive end, perhaps solidifying that scheme for the Bills. A safe pick at No. 3.

Kiper just a day earlier had Buffalo pegged as one of the best fits for Newton saying he wouldn’t have to take a snap in 2011 as a rookie with Ryan Fitzpatrick the starter, which he saw as a good thing for the Heisman trophy winner. He also listed San Fran, Tennessee, Washington and Minnesota as good landing spots.

Kiper not on Cam to Bills

ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper is not sold on Cam Newton going to the Bills at third overall. When asked on a national conference call why he felt that way he said the following.

“Just the different things you hear, different entities and different players and different things,” said Kiper. ”I had Newton going there (at 3) a few weeks ago, and somebody I respected, different people you talk to over the years told me, ‘Well I don’t think you’re right on that.’ A guy I know that has been around this business a lot and you go back and forth with friends you have in the league. I just think that it’s going to be a very difficult scenario.”

Kiper said it’s a difficult scenario because of the risk involved with Newton, who he again said was the player with the most upside and the most risk in this draft.

Kiper on QB vs. OT

The Washington Redskins pick fourth overall in the draft this April and has similar positional needs to that of the Bills who pick ninth. Mel Kiper shared the approach he would take faced with QB and OT as his top two positional needs.

On a national conference call, Kiper was asked specifically about Washington’s situation and whether he would take the QB or the OT with the Redskins pick at 4 and take an OT later. Here was his responsed.

“Would you rather have Anthony Davis (Rutgers) or Russell Okung (Oklahoma State) at four,” Kiper said referring to the highly regarded OTs, “and then Colt McCoy (Texas) or Dan LeFevour (Central Michigan) in the second round? Or would you rather have Jimmy Clausen or Sam Bradford at four, and then maybe a Bruce Campbell, the offensive tackle out of Maryland, or even a Bryan Bulaga (Iowa) if he fell down there? We’ve seen it happen before where tackles have dropped at times into the second round.

“In the case of a player like Clausen or Bradford, I would take the quarterback first. I have Clausen and Bradford rated higher than Davis and Okung. So I would go the quarterback first, then try to get the offensive tackle in the second round and hope that a Bruce Campbell or a Bulaga or somebody like that fell down to me.”

It’s an interesting approach Kiper chooses, but it’s not surprising since he’s one of the few draft prognosticators that has Clausen coming off the board at 4 to the Redskins. Some “experts” don’t even have Clausen rated as a first-round pick. So his rationale is a direct reflection of where he has Clausen ranked.

Ole Miss QB entering draft

Ole Miss QB Jevan Snead has decided to forgo his senior season with the Rebels.

Snead made the announcement Thursday.

“After much prayer and deliberation, I have decided to forego my final year at Ole Miss and enter the NFL Draft,” Snead said. “In the end, I had to do what is best for me and my family. Having finished my degree, I look forward to the challenge and hard work that comes with pursuing my dream of playing quarterback in the NFL.”

Snead (6’3″ 215) threw for 2,632 yards and 20 touchdowns as a junior for the Rebels, who beat Oklahoma State in the AT&T Cotton Bowl. Snead didn’t exactly go out on a high note going 13-23 for 168 yards and three INTs in the bowl game.

Still he is a welcome addition to a weak quarterback class. Mel Kiper’s top 5 Junior QBs are as follows.

1. Jimmy Clausen – Notre Dame
2. Sam Bradford – Oklahoma
3. Jake Locker – Washington (going back to school for senior year)
4. Jevan Snead – Ole Miss
5. Case Keenum – Houston (has not declared)

His top five senior QBs are as follows, though he stated that none were worthy of 1st round pick.

1. Colt McCoy – Texas
2. Tim Tebow – Florida
3. Dan LeFevour – Central Michigan
4. Tony Pike – Cincinnati
5. Sean Canfield – Oregon State

Kiper on Everette Brown

In the wake of my post on what Mike Mayock thought of Florida State DE Everette Brown, Mel Kiper addressed him in his national conference call Thursday. He basically said there’s a wide range of opinion out there on Brown, which also creates a wide range of where he could go on draft day.

“He could go as high as four and as low as 30,” said Kiper. “I think going 12th overall to Denver is realistic and even Buffalo at 11. He could go later, but I’ve had him as a mid-first round pick all along.”

Granted Kiper could be hedging his bets so putting a mid-first round grade on Brown splits the difference in terms of the wide range of opinions on Brown. No doubt some teams are scared off by his size (sub 6’2″) and realize he doesn’t have the frame to add much more weight if he struggles against the run at the NFL level.

I maintain that I think he can handle it at 252 pounds. He appears to know enough about leverage, and he is the most polished pass rusher in the class with respect to techniques and pass rush moves.

UB QB Drew Willy ready to compete

University at Buffalo quarterback Drew Willy just spoke with the media and he will, as expected, be doing everything here at the combine with respect to the workout.

“I”m looking forward to proving myself when I get the opportunity,” said Willy. “

“I’ve been working down in New Jersey where I’m from at the Parisi’s speed school and been going down to Atlanta on the weekends to train with Jerry Rhome, a quarterbacks coach, so I’ve learned a lot from him as far as protections and just my overall throwing mechanics. It’s been quite a process and I’ve enjoyed putting myself around the right people.”

Rhome, a former NFL quarterbacks coach, who has tutored the likes of Troy Aikman and others now runs a training program for quarterbacks. According to Willy however, Rhome is pretty satisfied with Willy’s mechanics.

“He pretty much liked my whole demeanor with getting back in the pocket and such,” said Willy. “We just worked on more protection stuff and a lot of the different defenses that you’re going to see at the next level. It’s been a big learning curve, but I think I’m up for the challenge, and I think I’ve learned a lot.”

Willy is expected to come off the board anywhere between the fifth and seventh round and Mel Kiper likes some of his qualities for the NFL level.

“I have him as the fifth best senior quarterback,” said Kiper. ”Good height at 6’3 ¼” and doesn’t make a lot of bad decisions. Very good awareness in the pocket, a ton of experience at Buffalo. I wish he had a little stronger arm. His arm is strong enough I just wish it was a little stronger. He’s probably a fifth or seventh round possibility. At worst he gets in a camp with a chance to be a developmental young quarterback.”

Kiper thinks UB QB Willy could be late pick

Mel Kiper believes University at Buffalo quarterback Drew Willey could be a late round pick due to a few specific characteristics, not the least of which is playing experience.

“I have him as the fifth best senior quarterback,” said Kiper. ”Good height at 6’3 ¼” and doesn’t make a lot of bad decisions. Very good awareness in the pocket, a ton of experience at Buffalo. I wish he had a little stronger arm. His arm is strong enough, I just wish it was a little stronger. He’s probably a fifth to seventh round possibility. At worst he gets in a camp with a chance to be a developmental young quarterback.”

Willy helped lead the Bulls to their first ever Mid-American conference title this past season and they also made an appearance in the International Bowl.

DE Ayers could be 2nd round option

One guy that really impressed me as a pass rushing defensive end option is Tennessee’s Robert Ayers. He was the Defensive MVP for the South team in the Senior Bowl and had a monster week.

I also like that he is 273 pounds. With more “sand in the pants” he can probably be a legitimate left defensive end prospect and hold up against the run. I asked Mel Kiper about him specifically and he thinks he could be there in round 2 for Buffalo.

“Ayers has really helped himself obviously a big week down in Mobile, had a very good year at Tennessee for a team that didn’t have a lot to brag about this kid did,” said Kiper. “He’s a second round pick right now. A lot of people I’ve talked to in the league are raving about Robert Ayers. I think he’s a guy that’ll go early to mid second round is a possibility. No question Robert Ayers is a guy that’s moved up.”

If Everette Brown or Aaron Maybin aren’t options in round one and the Bills have to go in another direction with the 11th pick it’d be great if they could land a guy like Ayers in round two.