Inside The Bills

Starts and comp. pct. matter in QB evals

Posted by Chris Brown on April 25, 2013 – 5:55 pm

There have been a lot of studies done by NFL scouting departments to most accurately predict NFL success at the quarterback position. According to the Lewin Career Forecast by Football Outsiders there are two college stats to best project NFL performance at the quarterback position.

Those two are completion percentage and games started, though the LCF uses a host of other metrics.

Here’s a look at some of the quarterbacks in this draft class (listed in alphabetical order) that ranked high in those respective categories.

In an effort to dismiss the criticism that some of these quarterbacks get for their high completion percentages being a result of short throws, I’ve also included each quarterback’s career yards per pass attempt figures. For reference anything over 8 yards per attempt is considered excellent in the NFL.

Matt Barkley – USC
47 career starts, completion percentage 64.1%, yards per attempt – 7.9

Landry Jones – Oklahoma
51 career starts, completion percentage 63.6%, yards per attempt – 7.6

E.J. Manuel – Florida State
31 career starts, completion percentage 66.9%, yards per attempt – 8.6

Ryan Nassib – Syracuse
38 career starts, completion percentage 60.3%, yards per attempt – 7.0

Geno Smith – West Virginia
40 career starts, completion percentage 67.4%, yards per attempt – 8.0

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