Inside The Bills

Carpenter could be valuable with new PAT rules

Posted by Chris Brown on May 21, 2015 – 10:43 am

As we covered in our interview with Bills kicker Dan Carpenter Wednesday, the new extra point rules will be an adjustment for all players in 2015. Naturally it will be harder to maintain the same success rate on extra points from 33 yards away than just 20. But for the Bills the potential loss of points is among the lowest in the league thanks to their kicker’s accuracy.

Value Penguin did a study whereby they assessed if the new PAT rule had been in place in 2014, the greater difficulty of the try (and the inevitable misses) would have cost the average NFL team five points for the season. But the Bills would have only lost one point because Carpenter, based on his career results from 30 to 39 yards (94.5 percent) and from the former PAT distance (99), would have only experienced a 4.5 percent drop-off, the second lowest mark in the league.

Graph of Pct Differences

The number of points that a team can lose on the PAT is dependent, obviously, on the number of touchdowns that its offense scores. (The extra point occurs only after a touchdown, whereas a field goal is its own separate scoring play.) Because of this, the percentage difference (above) is a more reliable statistic when evaluating a particular kicker’s value to his team.

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