Bills post their best toxic differential in 2015
Posted by on January 12, 2016 – 9:58 amBefore 2009 toxic differential was an unknown metric. Devised by former Baltimore Ravens head coach Brian Billick, it takes turnover differential and big play differential and adds the two figures together as a means of measuring how effectively an NFL team can execute big plays without surrendering them to the opponent. As we covered on Buffalobills.com today, the Bills finished with their highest ever toxic differential, finishing fourth in the NFL in 2015. Here’s a look at how Buffalo has fared since the statistic was initially recorded in 2009.
The Bills have had only two seasons in which they’ve posted a positive toxic differential, with both coming in two of the last three seasons.
| Year | Toxic Differential | Rank |
| 2009 | -21 | 25th |
| 2010 | -35 | 31st |
| 2011 | -13 | 23rd |
| 2012 | -29 | 27th |
| 2013 | +11 | 9th |
| 2014 | -5 | 17th |
| 2015 | +35 | 4th |
Tags: toxic differential
Posted in Inside the Bills
Most playoff teams ranked high in toxic metric
Posted by on January 12, 2016 – 8:58 amToxic differential isn’t the end all, be all metric in determining playoff clubs or even Super Bowl winners, but 10 of the last 15 Super Bowl winners have ranked high in toxic differential, which takes turnover differential and big play differential and adds the two figures together for toxic differential. Below is the ranking of the top 12 NFL clubs in toxic differential for 2015, with Buffalo posting their highest ranking ever of fourth with a plus-35. What’s interesting is the number of 2015 playoff teams on this list.
Ten of the league’s 12 playoffs teams rank in the top 12 in toxic differential. The only non-playoff teams are the Bills, who finished 8-8 and the Jets who finished 10-6 this season. The two playoff teams that did not rank highly in toxic differential were Houston (15th; +3) and Washington (26th; -25). Both clubs were beaten in the Wild Card round last weekend. Houston was shut out 30-0 and Washington lost by 17.
This list was put together by SportingCharts.com.
| Rank | Team | Turnover Differential | Big Play Differential | Toxic Differential |
| 1 | Carolina | 20 | 34 | +54 |
| 2 | Seattle | 7 | 42 | +49 |
| 3 | Cincinnati | 11 | 25 | +36 |
| 4 | Buffalo | 6 | 29 | +35 |
| 5 | Kansas City | 14 | 11 | +25 |
| 6 | Minnesota | 5 | 19 | +24 |
| 7 | Pittsburgh | 2 | 19 | +21 |
| 8 | Arizona | 9 | 11 | +20 |
| 9 | New York Jets | 6 | 11 | +17 |
| 10 | New England | 7 | 6 | +13 |
| 11 | Denver | -4 | 14 | +10 |
| 12 | Green Bay | 5 | 4 | +9 |
Tags: toxic differential
Posted in Inside the Bills
Bills ranking high in toxic differential
Posted by on October 1, 2015 – 12:16 pmIt was a statistic invented by former Baltimore head coach Brian Billick. Toxic differential takes turnover differential, big pass play differential and big run play differential and adds them together. The higher the number the better. Through the first three games this season the Bills rank very high in toxic differential.
Buffalo’s figure is a +12 so far this season, which ranks third in the league right now behind only Carolina, which is a gaudy +17 and Cincinnati at a +14.
The Bills are a +5 in turnover margin and a +7 in big play differential so far this season. Buffalo finished 17th in the league last season in toxic differential with a -5 figure. The goal is to obviously be on the plus side in both categories.
Buffalo’s big-play ability on offense this year appears much improved from last season with Tyrod Taylor and Buffalo’s passing game weapons.
Most NFL clubs that have won the Super Bowl have finished in the top 10 in toxic differential. This year’s figures come courtesy of Sporting Charts.
Tags: toxic differential
Posted in Inside the Bills
2014 Toxic Differential rankings
Posted by on February 5, 2015 – 1:09 pmAs we profiled on Buffalobills.com today (Thursday) the Bills were a top five team in the league in 2014 when it came to Toxic Differential, an advanced metric that combines turnover differential and explosive play differential (plays of 20 yards or more). Here is the full league rankings list from this past season.
2014 Toxic Differential Rankings
Rank Team Takes Gives Diff. 20+ for 20+ again. Diff. Toxic Diff.
1 Seahawks 24 14 +10 73 38 +35 +45
2 Broncos 25 20 +5 80 48 +32 +37
3 Packers 27 13 +14 71 57 +14 +28
4 Cowboys 31 25 +6 74 56 +18 +24
5 Bills 30 23 +7 59 47 +12 +19
6 Colts 26 31 -6 85 65 +20 +14
7 Ravens 22 20 +2 74 63 +11 +13
7 Lions 27 20 +7 60 54 +6 +13
9 Texans 34 22 +12 61 62 -1 +11
10 Falcons 28 23 +5 68 65 +3 +8
11 49ers 29 22 +7 61 61 0 +7
12 Chiefs 14 17 -3 56 49 +7 +4
12 Steelers 21 21 0 65 61 +4 +4
14 Vikings 19 20 -1 54 50 +4 +3
15 Patriots 25 13 +12 53 63 -10 +2
16 Chargers 18 23 -5 64 58 +6 +1
16 Browns 29 23 +6 66 71 -5 +1
18 Panthers 26 23 +3 50 55 -5 -2
19 Cardinals 25 17 +8 64 75 -11 -3
20 Bengals 26 26 0 49 55 -6 -6
21 Buccaneers 25 33 -8 59 58 +1 -7
22 Dolphins 25 23 +2 52 63 -11 -9
22 Redskins 19 31 -12 70 67 +3 -9
22 Titans 16 26 -10 58 57 +1 -9
25 Rams 25 27 -2 50 59 -9 -11
26 Jets 13 24 -11 50 52 -2 -13
27 Eagles 28 36 -8 76 82 -6 -14
28 Jaguars 20 26 -6 60 76 -16 -22
29 Giants 26 28 -2 60 82 -22 -24
29 Saints 17 30 -13 62 73 -11 -24
31 Bears 24 29 -5 45 75 -30 -35
32 Raiders 14 29 -15 36 68 -32 -47
Tags: toxic differential
Posted in Inside the Bills
Bills lead NFL in toxic differential
Posted by on October 30, 2014 – 12:40 pmIt’s a compound statistic that former NFL head coach Brian Billick has tracked for years and only recently made popular since he began working for NFL.com. It’s called toxic differential. It’s essentially a combined margin of turnover differential and big play differential (plays of 20 yards or more made or given up). At the midway point of the season the Bills lead the NFL (see table below)
As you can see in the table, Buffalo leads the league in takeaways and is fifth in explosive plays. Their plus-7 turnover differential and plus-13 explosive play differential gives them a toxic differential of plus-20. The San Diego Chargers are the only team within striking distance at this point of the Bills at plus-17.
It has Billick convinced that the Bills could be for real if they can maintain the differentials they’re enjoying in both areas of their game. Here’s what he wrote about Buffalo.
Buffalo, San Diego, San Francisco, Houston and Denver are the only teams in the NFL that rank in the top 10 in both turnover differential and explosive differential. We knew the Chargers, 49ers and Broncos were good, but this shows that the Bills and Texans are teams to watch in the second half, as well.
At a glance, you can see how teams have worked to address limitations from last season. In 2013, Buffalo was a bottom-10 team in explosive offensive plays. This year, with the solid quarterback play of Kyle Orton and the early maturation of Sammy Watkins, the Bills rank fifth overall in that category.
Tags: toxic differential
Posted in Inside the Bills
Big play Bills
Posted by on February 15, 2012 – 11:21 amWith the new statistical measure ‘toxic differential’ gaining popularity in determining an NFL team’s success, we thought we’d take a closer look as to just what players were providing the big plays for the Bills this past season.
There are some obvious candidates, but here are the players that turned in all of the 20-plus yard plays in the run and pass game for Buffalo in 2011.
Players with plays of 20 yards or more in 2011
1 . Fred Jackson (18)
2. Stevie Johnson (13)
3. David Nelson (7)
4. Naaman Roosevelt (7)
5. C.J. Spiller (6)
6. Scott Chandler (4)
7. Brad Smith (3)
8. Donald Jones (2)
9. Derek Hagan (2)
10. Kevin Brock (1)
11. Ruvell Martin (1)
It’s not surprising that Jackson had the most 20-plus yard plays on the season. Even though he only appeared in 11 games in 2011 he still seemed to have at least one big play every time out. Perhaps the most impressive though is Naaman Roosevelt, who probably had significantly fewer snaps than Scott Chandler, David Nelson and C.J. Spiller. Yet Roosevelt was tied for third most plays of 20+ yards.
Tags: C.J. Spiller, David Nelson, Fred Jackson, Naaman Roosevelt, Scott Chandler, Stevie Johnson, toxic differential
Posted in Inside the Bills
NFL toxic differential rankings
Posted by on February 15, 2012 – 10:59 amAs we profiled on the home page of Buffalobills.com Wednesday, toxic differential (measure of turnover differential + explosive play differential) is becoming and more and more respected statistic for team success. Here’s the league rankings of toxic differential for 2011 as compiled by Buffalobills.com courtesy of stats from Stats Inc.
The 20+ categories represent explosive plays by a team’s own offense and by a team’s opponent. The differential between those two figures is reflected in the Exp. Diff. column followed by the Turnover Differential column (Turn. Diff.). The sum of those two columns is then represented in the far right column as Toxic Differential
NFL TOXIC DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS 2011
| Tm Rank | Team | 20+ own | 20+ opp. | Exp diff. | Turn diff. | Toxic diff. |
| 1 | San Fran | 57 | 52 | +5 | +28 | +33 |
| 2 | Carolina | 90 | 67 | +23 | +1 | +24 |
| T3 | Detroit | 73 | 62 | +11 | +11 | +22 |
| T3 | Green Bay | 78 | 80 | -2 | +24 | +22 |
| 5 | Houston | 68 | 55 | +13 | +7 | +20 |
| 6 | N.O. | 83 | 63 | +20 | -3 | +17 |
| 7 | Seattle | 59 | 51 | +8 | +8 | +16 |
| T8 | Atlanta | 67 | 62 | +5 | +8 | +13 |
| T8 | Pitt. | 69 | 43 | +26 | -13 | +13 |
| T10 | Dallas | 69 | 64 | +5 | +4 | +9 |
| T10 | Balt. | 57 | 50 | +7 | +2 | +9 |
| T12 | NY Giants | 71 | 71 | 0 | +7 | +7 |
| T12 | San Diego | 82 | 68 | +14 | -7 | +7 |
| 14 | Phil. | 84 | 64 | +20 | -14 | +6 |
| 15 | N.E. | 77 | 89 | -12 | +17 | +5 |
| 16 | Chicago | 61 | 59 | +2 | +2 | +4 |
| T17 | Buffalo | 65 | 66 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| T17 | Cincy | 57 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Oakland | 84 | 82 | +2 | -4 | -2 |
| 20 | Tenn. | 65 | 69 | -4 | 1+ | -3 |
| 21 | Jax. | 40 | 51 | -11 | 5+ | -6 |
| 22 | Miami | 67 | 68 | -1 | -6 | -7 |
| 23 | Minn. | 60 | 65 | -5 | -3 | -8 |
| 24 | NY Jets | 48 | 54 | -6 | -3 | -9 |
| 25 | K.C. | 52 | 65 | -13 | -2 | -15 |
| 26 | Denver | 56 | 60 | -4 | -12 | -16 |
| T27 | Wash. | 67 | 72 | -5 | -14 | -19 |
| T27 | Clev. | 39 | 59 | -20 | +1 | -19 |
| 29 | Arizona | 62 | 69 | -7 | -13 | -20 |
| 30 | St. Louis | 44 | 63 | -19 | -5 | -24 |
| 31 | Indy | 39 | 56 | -17 | -12 | -29 |
| 32 | T.B. | 44 | 78 | -34 | -5 | -39 |
Tags: toxic differential
Posted in Inside the Bills
CHRIS BROWN
JOHN MURPHY
